LinkedIn·Tuesday, 25 August 2026·1d ago

One question completely changed the way I think about delivery commitments. How much risk are you willing to take? When someone asks "when…

Sonya Siderova

Founder & CEO at Nave | Helping enterprise agile coaches prove transformation value with metrics executives trust

One question completely changed the way I think about delivery commitments. How much risk are you willing to take? When someone asks "when can you deliver this?" we usually respond with a date. But a date on its own leaves out an important part of that decision: the risk we’re taking when we commit to it. Here is what I mean by that. Imagine your historical delivery data gives you three options and the probabilities that come with each of them: 10 days, with 70% confidence. 15 days, with 85% confidence. 20 days, with 95% confidence. Which one would you go for? Well, it depends on how much risk you're willing to take. If the work is easy, you've done this before and you don't expect challenges along the way, 70% is perfectly acceptable. If the scope is big and there are a lot of unknowns around it, perhaps the 95th or even 98th percentile is the more reliable answer. The rule of thumb is simple: the higher the uncertainty, the higher the percentile you should work with. That's the part I think we miss when we talk about forecasting. We spend so much time trying to find the date. But the more important question is, how much certainty do we need to make this promise? And the great thing is, we can actually put a number, a percentage on that certainty. Because not every commitment deserves the same level of certainty. The consequence of being wrong should determine how much confidence you need before you commit. That's what turns forecasting from predicting dates into managing risk. That’s what makes it a business decision. A reliable commitment isn’t just a date. It’s a date with a level of risk you’ve consciously chosen. If you'd like to go deeper into how probabilistic forecasting works and how to apply the concept in your own context, send me a DM and I'll share the guide with you. #NavigateYourFlow #FlowMetrics #Predictability #AgileLeadership #DataDrivenDecisions