Overview
NERAI fuses millions of global event signals with AI-driven analysis to deliver decision-grade risk intelligence quantified, forecast, and explained in plain language. The platform monitors 60+ priority economies across 40+ CAMEO risk dimensions with a 12-month forward forecast horizon and daily index updates.
Key people
In the news
- The US–Iran war has paused. It has not ended. October has been quiet on Iranian soil because the White House promised no strikes before the 3 November vote. At sea it has been the worst month of the war: 27 attacks on merchant ships by 22 October, according to the IMO. Our new NERAI Question Report gives seven decisive calls for the next six months: → Nature: material conflict risk, not rhetoric. → Our base case is a short, intense US–Israeli strike round after 3 November, peaking in the second half of the month. → Iran answers
- Four chokepoints link Asia and Europe. This week two are escalating: Hormuz is SEVERE and Bab el-Mandeb is DISRUPTED. NERAI Corridor Report, week of 12–18 October 2026: 1. Hormuz is SEVERE with an escalating outlook: 2 of 12 warning indicators lit and 140 incidents counted by JMIC since 1 March. 2. Bab el-Mandeb is DISRUPTED and escalating: the Houthi–Saudi war reached Riyadh, yet JMIC still sees a selective campaign against Saudi-linked ships. 3. Suez is easing: Drewry's WCI rose 3% to $4,485/FEU on 15 Oct, ending 13 weekly
- 26 days to 10 November. A customer on no US list can still need a US export licence. That is the BIS Affiliates Rule in one line. It extends Entity List and Military End-User restrictions to companies owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by listed parties. Listed stakes are added together: 30% + 25% = covered. It reaches EU companies whenever the goods are subject to the EAR. The date: the Federal Register text brings the rule back on 10 November 2026. A delay to 10 January 2027 has been announced, but no notice has been
- Four chokepoints link Asia and Europe. This week only one is escalating, and it is now SEVERE: Hormuz. From this weeks NERAI Corridor Report (5–11 October): 1. Hormuz is rated SEVERE. 3 of 12 warning indicators are lit, JMIC confirmed six attacks on shipping (3–6 Oct), and Sentinel-1 radar vessel presence in the strait is −35% vs the 2025 baseline (30-day average). 2. Bab el-Mandeb is DISRUPTED, but the risk is targeted. Saudi-linked tankers pay up to 7% of hull value for war cover; other hulls pay 0.2–0.3%. 3. Suez is easing.
- Four chokepoints link Asia and Europe. This week only one is escalating: Hormuz. From this week's NERAI Corridor Report (5–11 October): 1. Hormuz is rated DISRUPTED. 3 of 12 warning indicators are lit, and Sentinel-1 radar vessel presence in the strait is −34% vs the 2025 baseline (30-day average). 2. Red Sea risk is targeted, not general. Saudi-linked tankers pay up to 7% of hull value for war cover; other hulls pay 0.2–0.3%. 3. Suez is easing. Containership transits hit a one-year high (61 in the week to 4 Oct, per Drewry), and
- Your clients are asking what happens next. Now you can answer with intelligence they won't find anywhere else. Let's come together at the NERAI Partner Program. NERAI tracks 2,400 risk series across 60+ economies every day and turns them into calibrated forecasts, backtested on more than 118,000 country-weeks. On top of that sit datasets we build ourselves: corridor forecasts that are published and scored, war-risk listed-area outlooks, live chokepoint monitoring and daily sanctions and trade-control changes with vessels flagged.
- How is China absorbing the Hormuz crisis, and which neighbour is it most likely to face a crisis with over the coming year? Our latest Strategic Intelligence Report, "From Hormuz to East Asia", looks at both questions using NERAI's risk indices, maritime corridor data and forecast models, alongside dated open sources. Key findings on China: → Exposure is large, but it is being managed. Before the crisis, 45–50% of China's crude imports and about 30% of its LNG transited Hormuz. Seaborne crude imports fell to 7.14 mb/d in August,
- Hormuz transits are down 93%. Gulf cargo hasnt stopped, it has moved. Three things from this weeks NERAI read: Fujairah, outside the strait, is handling 34% more port calls than its 90-day average. Jebel Ali, inside it, is 16% down; Jeddah, on the Red Sea, 72% down. Value is concentrating at a handful of outer-Gulf terminals. The risk is following the cargo. Saudi Arabias military-escalation signal has moved from the 42nd to the 90th percentile of its own history in 90 days, Yemens from the 61st to the 94th. Over the weekend
Something wrong or missing? Send an update. Fixed within 24 hours.