LinkedIn·Tuesday, 18 August 2026·8d ago
A test that is right 70% of the time can be worth exactly nothing. Not less than a better test — zero. If no result would change which…
Vose
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A test that is right 70% of the time can be worth exactly nothing.
Not less than a better test — zero. If no result would change which option you choose, the study buys you nothing at all, however much it reduces your uncertainty. You would have paid to feel better informed while doing precisely what you were always going to do.
That is the uncomfortable half of value-of-information analysis. The useful half is that all of it is calculable before you spend anything: EVPI caps what any study could ever be worth, EVII prices the specific one on your desk.
We have worked a $4m capital decision all the way through — every figure checkable by hand, and confirmed by ModelChoice on the same tree: $1.35m ceiling, $817,500 for the pilot on offer, $250,000 to buy it.
Information you will not act on is worth nothing.
The full worked example: https://lnkd.in/eiJNZ2rU
And to see this kind of analysis run live: we are hosting a free webinar — Introduction to ModelChoice: Decision Analysis made simple — on 1 September 2026, 18:00 CET. Register here: https://lnkd.in/ebvxvhFf
#DecisionAnalysis #ValueOfInformation #RiskAnalysis #ModelChoice
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